PT SEMEN INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK Corporate Presentation
March 2022
Supply & Demand
National production capacity currently reached 119.1 million tons, while national demand was 65.2 million tons therefore create excess capacity of 52.6 million tons. Most of the cement plants are concentrated in Java which represents the largest portion of national cement consumption.
Nasional
Demand Spread & Growth
YTD March 2022
National cement demand YTD March 2022 increased 4.7%. The bag demand decrease 0.6%, but bulk demand highly increase by 24% in YTD March 2022. Almost of the region in Indonesia have recorded positive demand growth, except Bali Nusra. The highest demand growth was seen in Sulawesi which mostly from the bag demand.
Jawa (53%)
Bag BulkGrowth -0.1% 13.5%
T otal
3.6%
Bag
Growth -2.6%
Bulk T otal
18.3% 0.5%Bag BulkGrowth 2.7% 89.1%
Total
19.7%
Bag BulkGrowth 6.9% 6.6%
Total
6.9%
Bag BulkGrowth -3.3% 4.2%
Total
-2.5%
Bag
Growth -10.8%
Bulk 1047.5%
T otal 13.1%
Domestic Demand Overview Portion, Trend & Cyclicity
80% 20% 79% 21% 78% 22% 77% 23% 76% 24% 75% 25% 73% 27% 73% 27% 77% 23% 77% 23% 75% 25%
2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bag and Bulk National Demand Portion
Bag Portion
Bulk Portion
YTD Mar2022
Cement consumption in Indonesia is still dominated by retail, most of which come from people who renovate or build their own houses, or small developers who build small-scale housing.
the first semester and the
National Demand Trend 1st & 2nd Semester
Based on trends, national cement25%demand tends to be higher in the second semester than in the first semester, given the high rainfall in
2016
2017
2018
1H Portion
2019
2020
2H Portion2H/1H
2021
government infrastructure projects realized more in 2H.
14.4%Growth BagGrowth BulkNational Growth
CAGR Bag: -16.1%CAGR Bulk: -14.5%CAGR National: -15.7%
*Growth without Singa Merah, because Singa Merah join ASI in 2022
Bag & Bulk Demand Growth
Higher bulk demand growth is in line with the development of cement derivative products and increase in government infrastructure programs during 2015-2019. In 2020 bulk consumption decrease significantly following the government budget reallocation for handling the Pandemic COVID-19
8.0
7.0
Monthly National Demand Trend
6.0
Million tons
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
In addition, the month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr fall in the first semester during which construction activity generally slows down.
1.0
-Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Our Challenges
Increasing competition due to oversupply and lower demand post pandemic, as well as the increasing coal price has given more pressure to the industry
Cement Industry Capacity and Demand Growth
140,0
Capacity Share
100%
ICI 4 (USD/ton)
120,0
160
100,0
80%
140
120
80,0
60%
100
80
40%
60
60,0
40,0
40
20%
20,0
20
0
0%
-
2012
2013
2014
CapacityCapacity Growth
2015
2016 2017
2018
DemandDemand Growth
2019 2020 2021
Domestic Utilization
-20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
SIG + SBIINTPOthers
08/01/21
08/02/21
08/03/21
08/04/21
08/05/21
08/06/21
08/07/21
08/08/21
08/09/21
08/10/21
08/11/21
08/12/21
08/01/22
Industry Utilization Rate
National cement production capacity increase more compared to the demand growth creating oversupply situation in the Indonesia cement industry.
Industrial utilization rate has decreased from 88% in 2013 to 54% in 2021 as cement players have doubled since 2015. 2021 utilization was still low as national demand has not yet back to pre pandemic level.
Cement Industry Hyper Competition
Since 2019 volume share eco-brands growth in almost all area, with wider price disparity. This situation creates domestic cement industry in hyper competition condition which leads to a challenging situation for our performance in 2021 (volume and price drag down)
Rising Trends of Coal Price
Supply-Demand imbalance during recovery from COVID-19 pandemic derived in significant coal price increase which impacted the production cost, especially in the 4th quarter 2021. although the price trend in early 2022 has beginning to decline, the prediction for full year 2022 is still above the 2021 figure.
Source:
Indonesia Cement Association Data; Bloomberg
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PT Semen Indonesia Persero Tbk published this content on 19 April 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 April 2022 09:43:01 UTC.
