SAFARICOM PLC |
End-of-day quote
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 16.3 KES | -0.31% |
|
+1.88% | +17.27% |
| Jan. 25 | Transcript : Safaricom PLC - Special Call | |
| Jan. 18 | Ethiopia opens up to foreign investment firms ahead of capital markets launch | RE |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 1,103,803 | 1,059,731 | 1,452,372 | 1,368,234 | 725,184 | 653,066 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 1,079,763 | 1,040,971 | 1,440,408 | 1,402,766 | 788,628 | 763,764 | 779,621 | 782,130 |
| P/E ratio | 17.7 x | 14.4 x | 21.2 x | 19.6 x | 11.7 x | 9.88 x | 8.54 x | 7.5 x |
| Yield | 4.54% | 5.29% | 3.78% | 4.07% | 6.63% | 7.11% | 8.45% | 9.76% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 4.41 x | 4.04 x | 5.5 x | 4.59 x | 2.33 x | 1.94 x | 1.75 x | 1.55 x |
| EV / Revenue | 4.31 x | 3.96 x | 5.46 x | 4.71 x | 2.54 x | 2.27 x | 2.09 x | 1.85 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.69 x | 7.54 x | 10.7 x | 9.41 x | 5.64 x | 4.64 x | 4.39 x | 4.02 x |
| EV / FCF | 17.1 x | 14.8 x | 22.3 x | 22 x | 15.8 x | 24 x | 29.3 x | 13.2 x |
| FCF Yield | 5.84% | 6.75% | 4.48% | 4.54% | 6.32% | 4.17% | 3.41% | 7.58% |
| Price to Book | 7.65 x | 7.4 x | 10.6 x | 9.81 x | 3.87 x | 3.74 x | 3.43 x | 3.13 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | 40,065,428 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 27.55 | 26.45 | 36.25 | 34.15 | 18.10 | 16.30 | 16.30 | 16.30 |
| Announcement Date | 5/3/19 | 4/29/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/12/22 | 5/11/23 | - | - | - |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 250,280 | 262,560 | 264,026 | 298,078 | 310,905 | 336,387 | 373,728 | 422,112 |
| EBITDA 1 | 124,300 | 138,040 | 134,129 | 149,062 | 139,862 | 164,475 | 177,763 | 194,402 |
| EBIT 1 | 88,970 | 101,490 | 96,165 | 109,129 | 84,997 | 87,836 | 96,346 | 109,776 |
| Operating Margin | 35.55% | 38.65% | 36.42% | 36.61% | 27.34% | 26.11% | 25.78% | 26.01% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 91,220 | 105,770 | 93,636 | 102,213 | 88,345 | 86,083 | 79,133 | 95,120 |
| Net income 1 | 62,490 | 73,660 | 68,676 | 69,648 | 62,269 | 49,188 | 42,840 | 53,289 |
| Net margin | 24.97% | 28.05% | 26.01% | 23.37% | 20.03% | 14.62% | 11.46% | 12.62% |
| EPS 2 | 1.560 | 1.840 | 1.710 | 1.740 | 1.550 | 1.651 | 1.909 | 2.173 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 63,110 | 70,270 | 64,516 | 63,670 | 49,820 | 31,831 | 26,612 | 59,276 |
| FCF margin | 25.22% | 26.76% | 24.44% | 21.36% | 16.02% | 9.46% | 7.12% | 14.04% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 50.77% | 50.91% | 48.1% | 42.71% | 35.62% | 19.35% | 14.97% | 30.49% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 100.99% | 95.4% | 93.94% | 91.42% | 80.01% | 64.71% | 62.12% | 111.23% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 1.250 | 1.400 | 1.370 | 1.390 | 1.200 | 1.159 | 1.377 | 1.591 |
| Announcement Date | 5/3/19 | 4/29/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/12/22 | 5/11/23 | - | - | - |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: March | 2020 S1 | 2021 S2 | 2022 S1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 129,930 | - | 146,368 |
| EBITDA 1 | 68,370 | - | 77,405 |
| EBIT 1 | 50,250 | - | 57,912 |
| Operating Margin | 38.67% | - | 39.57% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) | 51,320 | - | - |
| Net income 1 | 35,200 | - | 37,172 |
| Net margin | 27.09% | - | 25.4% |
| EPS 2 | 0.8800 | - | 0.9200 |
| Dividend per Share | - | 0.9200 | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/1/19 | 5/13/21 | 11/10/21 |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: March | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | - | - | - | 34,531 | 63,444 | 110,697 | 126,555 | 129,064 |
| Net Cash position 1 | 24,040 | 18,760 | 11,964 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | 0.2317 x | 0.4536 x | 0.673 x | 0.7119 x | 0.6639 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 63,110 | 70,270 | 64,516 | 63,670 | 49,820 | 31,831 | 26,612 | 59,276 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 46.6% | 51.3% | 48.9% | 50.3% | 38.1% | 35.2% | 35.3% | 35.7% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 34.7% | 36.3% | 30.9% | 24.1% | - | - | - | - |
| Assets 1 | 179,960 | 202,850 | 221,930 | 288,714 | - | - | - | - |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 3.600 | 3.570 | 3.440 | 3.480 | 4.680 | 4.360 | 4.750 | 5.210 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 2.490 | 2.760 | 2.620 | 2.770 | 2.900 | 3.810 | 2.930 | 3.590 |
| Capex 1 | 37,250 | 36,100 | 34,960 | 49,779 | 66,331 | 75,613 | 83,027 | 92,280 |
| Capex / Sales | 14.88% | 13.75% | 13.24% | 16.7% | 21.33% | 22.48% | 22.22% | 21.86% |
| Announcement Date | 5/3/19 | 4/29/20 | 5/13/21 | 5/12/22 | 5/11/23 | - | - | - |
1KES in Million2KES
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
C+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
16.3
KES
Average target price
21.61
KES
Spread / Average Target
+32.60%
EPS Revisions
Annual profits - Rate of surprise
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.27% | 4.85B | |
| +28.33% | 94.52B | |
| +6.76% | 56.67B | |
| -11.97% | 23.64B | |
| -16.38% | 20.55B | |
| -12.50% | 11.16B | |
| +5.61% | 10.64B | |
| +2.45% | 10.28B | |
| +0.88% | 8.9B | |
| -25.24% | 8.29B |
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