SCHINDLER HOLDING AG 
Results as of September 30, 2023
October 19, 2023
© Schindler 2023
Agenda
1. | Progress update | Silvio Napoli |
2. | Market update | Silvio Napoli |
3. | Financial results | Carla De Geyseleer |
4. | Outlook 2023 | Carla De Geyseleer |
5. | Q&A | Silvio Napoli/Carla De Geyseleer |
2 2I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations
On track to deliver
Improved profitability | Order intake and | Growing service |
revenue growth | ||
business | ||
Persistent year-on-year trend | against tough market | |
Increasing network density and | ||
over five quarters | environment | |
efficiency gains | ||
Intensifying
foreign exchange
headwinds
Balanced global | Year-on-year |
net profit, EPS and | |
footprint | |
cash flow uptake | |
Balance sheet
providing strength
and flexibility
3 | I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations |
Agenda
1. | Progress update | Silvio Napoli |
2. | Market update | Silvio Napoli |
3. | Financial results | Carla De Geyseleer |
4. | Outlook 2023 | Carla De Geyseleer |
5. | Q&A | Silvio Napoli/Carla De Geyseleer |
4 4I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations
Global outlook: in spite of slowdown, China largest contributor to global economy growth in 2024 - 2028
IMF: Average growth in GDP, % | |||||||||||||
10.0 | |||||||||||||
7.7 | |||||||||||||
8.0 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||
6.3 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||
6.0 | |||||||||||||
4.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | ||||||||
4.0 | |||||||||||||
2.3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||||
2.0 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||
0.0 | |||||||||||||
China | India | United States | Euro area | ASEAN-5 | Middle East and | ||||||||
IMF: Average annual addition to GDP, $ bn
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
Central Asia
2010 - 2019
2020 - 2023
2024 - 2028
0 | ||||||
China | India | United States | Euro area | ASEAN-5 | Middle East and | |
Central Asia | ||||||
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2023 | ||||||
5 I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations |
Global housing deficit to fuel future NI residential demand
China current housing oversupply offset by global shortage
Housing oversupply (+) / deficit (-) by country (million units, estimated) | Housing deficit translated to potential E&E demand |
(1 000 units) |
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Philippines
US
UK
Egypt
Mexico
Germany
China
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Philippines
US
UK
Egypt
Mexico
Germany
25
40
45
75
55
35
320
170
1'800
- 40 | - 20 | 0 | 20 | 40 | 60 | 80 | 0 | 200 | 400 | 600 | 800 1'000 1'200 1'400 1'600 1'800 2'000 |
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, MIT, UBS, National Association of Realtors, Global Property Guide, Center for Cities, SHDA, NAHP, RNCOS | |||||||||||
Definitions of a housing deficit vary by country and are not comparable | |||||||||||
6 I © Schindler 2023 I | We Elevate I October 19, 2023 | I Investor Relations |
Global Service markets to outgrow NI
Elevators & Escalators 2022 installed base
25000000 | 100% | |||||||||||
78% | 81% | 84% | ||||||||||
20000000 | 75% | |||||||||||
68% | 72% | |||||||||||
64% | ||||||||||||
59% | ||||||||||||
15000000 | 53% | |||||||||||
48% | ||||||||||||
10000000 | ||||||||||||
5000000 | ||||||||||||
0 | ||||||||||||
China | USA | Iberia | Italy | South | Germany | Southeast | France | India | Türkiye | Other | ||
Korea | Asia | |||||||||||
CAGR | ||||||||||||
5.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | ||
2022 - 2030 | ||||||||||||
2. |
CAGR total for all countries: 4.1%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
7 | I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations |
Market update 2023
NI market contracting, Service and Modernization remain strong
APAC | Indicative Schindler | |||||
Units | China | w/o China | Americas | EMEA | Global | revenue split |
New Installations | - - - | - | - - - | - | - - |
Decline in floor | India: strong | North America: |
space started and | growth | declining in |
under construction | South Korea: | commercial/ |
continues | multi-family | |
declining | ||
South America: | ||
Southeast | ||
growing demand | ||
Asia: | ||
vs. supply | ||
weakening | ||
slowdown | ||
Northern Europe: slowdown led by Germany
Türkiye: return to growth partially offsets decline in other markets
Middle East: growth slowing down
High overall uncertainty, widespread ‟wait-and-see" attitude in spite of underlying demand
New Installations
Modernization | Robust demand due to ageing installed base in Western markets and China | ++ | |||||
Service | Continued good growth across the regions, driven by APAC including China | ++ | Modernization and | ||||
0 to <5% | + | 0 to > -5% | - | Service | |||
5% to 10% | + + | -5% to -10% | - - | change vs. Q2 | |||
>10% | + + + | < -10% | - - - |
Source: Schindler estimates
8 | I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations |
China NI: no return to growth in the short term
Construction industry KPIs still trending down, housing inventory increasing, developers with less funding
Floor space started declining for 4th consecutive year
2 500 | 8.1% | 17.2% | 40% | |||
2 000 | 7.0% | 20% | ||||
-10.7% | 8.5% -1.2% | |||||
1 500 | -11.4% | -23.4% | 0% | |||
1 000 | -14.0% | -20% | ||||
500 | -39.4% | -40% | ||||
0 | -60% | |||||||
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 | 2021 2022 | Jan- | ||||||
Sep | ||||||||
2023 | ||||||||
Floor space started (m sqm) | Change (y-o-y) | |||||||
Floor space under construction down 7.1% YTD | ||||
12 000 | 12% | |||
10 000 | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10% | |
8% | ||||
8 000 | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6% |
4% | ||||
6 000 | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2% | |
1.3% | 0% | |||
4 000 | -2% | |||
-7.1% | -4% | |||
2 000 | ||||
-7.2% | -6% | |||
0 | -8% | |||
-10% |
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 | 2021 2022 | Jan- | ||||
Sep | ||||||
2023 | ||||||
Floor space under construction (m sqm) | Change (y-o-y) | |||||
- Housing inventory by city tier (months of sales; source: Yiju, September 2023)
- Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
9 | I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations |
Housing inventory in lower-tier cities picking up again1)
Months of consumption
30 | |||||||
Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3/4 | |||||
25 | |||||||
20
15
10
5
0
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
Funds available to developers are decreasing2) (CNY bn)
25 000 | 15.2% | 20% | ||||
20 000 | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 10% |
15 000 | -0.1%2.6% | 0% | ||||
10 000 | -13.5% | -10% | ||||||
5 000 | -20% | |||||||
-25.9% | ||||||||
0 | -30% | |||||||
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 | 2022 | Jan- | ||||||
Sep | ||||||||
2023 | ||||||||
Funds available to developers (CNY bn) | Change (y-o-y) | |||||||
China: E&E transition to Service and Modernization
Growth in 2023 consistent with maturing market patterns
China E&E installed base at ~50% of global market
million units
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2030E |
China to reach 50% of global modernization market by 2030
thousand units
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2030E |
Up to 1.5 million units between 12 and 20 years of age
10 I © Schindler 2023 I We Elevate I October 19, 2023 I Investor Relations
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Schindler Holding Ltd. published this content on 19 October 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 October 2023 04:48:31 UTC.
