SPINEGUARD Morning Note - 09th March 2023
SPINEGUARD | France - Medtech | |||||||
A new step forward for the robotics project | BUY | |||||||
▪ 100% efficiency in detecting bone breaches | Fair value (EUR) | 1.56 | ||||||
▪ | A high value-added technology for robotics x | Price (EUR) | 0.989 | |||||
▪ | Still undervalued | Upside/down side | +57.7% | |||||
Performance confirmed on a more demanding model
SpineGuard reported last night very encouraging results obtained in a series of tests of its DSG technology coupled with a robotic arm performing drilling in pig vertebrae (from butchery parts). After the first conclusive results obtained in 2021, the company decided to carry out a new series of tests in conditions closer to reality by drilling in a pedicle trajectory that is highly conducive to drill slippage, which is generally not detected (or too late once the bone breach has occurred). Despite blind drilling (without prior planning based on imaging or during the surgery), 100% of the drillings met the success criteria. The drilling was therefore carried out in optimal safety. The technology was able to stop the drill and keep it in a corridor considered clinically safe.
A response to a fundamental need in surgical robotics
The accuracy and reliability of surgical robots lies in the quality of the translations and rotations of the arms in space (or their associated devices that enter the patient inner space). While real-time imaging techniques provide valuable information for adjusting the position in space, they often require the use of X-rays that are dangerous for the patient and for the medical staff near the patient during the operation. A key element of DSG technology is the real-time analysis of the drill head environment, which is essential in neurosurgery. By detecting tissue at risk, it allows feedback loops to the arm that can stop its progression and prevent irreversible nerve damage. DSG can and should become a must have component of surgical robots.
Valuation and rating
This news is very reassuring and logically reinforces the potential value of DSG technology in surgical robotics. It is obvious that this value must be concretized through partnerships with players in this promising Medtech segment. This project is building its credibility step by step, and the milestone reached with these results seems essential in this process. The share's recent rise has reduced its potential, which nevertheless remains very high in relation to our fair value (+57.7%). We therefore remain very positive on the stock, whose fundamentals are intact.
Next communication:FY results - April 13th
Lionel Labourdette, PhD, MBA
lionel@biostrategic-research.com+33 617 965 019
Stock data (2023-03-08)
ISIN | FR0011464452 |
Ticker | ALSGD.PA |
Price (EUR) | 0.989 |
Market capitalisation (EURm) | 31.4 |
Free float (%) est. | 96.1 |
Floating capitalisation (EURm) | 30.2 |
Number of shares (,000) | 31,741 |
Average daily volume (3 m) | 288,134 |
12m performance
2,0 | |||||
1,5 | |||||
1,0 | |||||
0,5 | |||||
0,0 | 09/05/22 | 09/07/22 | 09/09/22 | 09/11/22 | 09/01/23 |
09/03/22 | |||||
ALSGD | ALSGD rel to CAC Small & Mid 190 |
Change (%) | 1 m | 3 m | 12m |
Absolute | +21.1 | +68.5 | +6.6 |
Rel. to CAC SM190 | +19.7 | +57.7 | +0.4 |
Rel. to Next Biotech | +29.3 | +79.4 | +9.5 |
Financials (31/12)
EURm | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 4.4 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.9 |
EBITDA | -1.5 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
EBIT | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Net income | -2.7 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
EPS (EUR) | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
Net debt | 4.4 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -2.8 |
Key ratios
2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | |
EV/Sales | 7.5x | 5.4x | 4.2x | 3.2x |
EV/EBITDA | na | na | na | 29.5x |
EV/EBIT | na | na | na | 45.5x |
PER | na | na | na | 65.0x |
ROIC | na | na | na | 17% |
ROE | na | na | na | 7% |
EV/IC | 7.8x | 7.3x | 7.5x | 7.7x |
Gearing | na | -19% | -28% | -42% |
The issuer and Biostrategic Partners have agreed that Biostrategic Partners will produce and disseminate investment research as a service
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Profit and Loss
As of 31/12 (EURm) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.62 | 7.16 | 8.91 |
Change n-1 | 9.5% | -7.3% | -9.9% | -29.0% | -9.2% | 27.6% | 27.4% | 24.4% |
Other revenues | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total revenues | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.62 | 7.16 | 8.91 |
Gross margin | 6.95 | 6.55 | 5.77 | 4.04 | 3.61 | 4.56 | 5.90 | 7.38 |
EBITDA | -2.66 | -0.86 | -0.14 | -1.49 | -1.04 | -0.38 | 0.35 | 0.97 |
Change n-1 | 20% | 68% | 84% | -993% | 30% | 63% | 191% | -178% |
Depreciation & amortisation | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
Goodwill | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
EBIT | -2.96 | -1.11 | -0.43 | -1.84 | -1.35 | -0.71 | 0.01 | 0.63 |
Change n-1 | 18% | 63% | 61% | -326% | 27% | 47% | 102% | -4338% |
Net financial income | -1.16 | -1.21 | -0.64 | -0.84 | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.28 | -0.15 |
Minorities | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Net profit before tax | -4.13 | -2.32 | -1.07 | -2.68 | -1.65 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Tax | - | -0.02 | 0.39 | -0.04 | -0.08 | - | - | - |
Net in come | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -2.72 | -1.72 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Change n-1 | 1% | 43% | 71% | -296% | 37% | 35% | 77% | 285% |
EPS | -0.72 | -0.34 | -0.05 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
EPS fully diluted | -0.65 | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
Gross margin (% of sales) | 85.1% | 86.5% | 84.5% | 83.2% | 81.9% | 81.2% | 82.5% | 82.9% |
EBITDA (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 4.9% | 10.9% |
EBIT (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0.2% | 7.1% |
Net margin (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5.4% |
Cash Flow statement
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Net income | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -2.72 | -1.72 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Depreciation and amortisation | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
Goodwill | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Change in WCR | 0.26 | -0.08 | 0.27 | 0.64 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.40 |
Others | 1.05 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.13 |
Cash-flow from operations | -2.51 | -0.67 | 0.60 | -0.68 | -1.23 | -0.30 | 0.80 | 1.36 |
Capex | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
Free cash flow | -2.56 | -0.72 | 0.52 | -0.73 | -1.27 | -0.38 | 0.72 | 1.28 |
Acquisitions | - | - | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
Divestments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Dividends | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital increase | 2.21 | 1.68 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 6.48 | 1.00 | - | - |
Financing (bank and others) | 0.01 | 4.64 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.04 | - | - | - |
Others | -0.26 | -5.73 | -1.54 | -0.99 | -0.91 | -1.19 | -1.13 | -1.06 |
Change in cash over the period | -0.61 | -0.13 | 0.80 | -0.12 | 4.01 | -0.72 | -0.56 | 0.07 |
Opening cash position | 1.80 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 2.01 | 2.03 | 6.33 | 5.76 | 5.36 |
Closing cash position | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 6.04 | 5.61 | 5.21 | 5.43 |
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Balance sheet
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Fixed assets | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
Intangible assets | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.38 |
Goodwill | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
Financial assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Inventories | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.88 |
Account receivables | 1.38 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
Other receivables | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
Cash and cash equivalents | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.40 | 1.22 | 5.21 | 4.64 | 4.23 | 4.45 |
Prepaid expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other non-current assets | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
Total assets | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.50 | 8.06 | 11.90 | 11.23 | 11.12 | 11.73 |
Equity | -0.21 | -0.50 | 0.59 | -0.01 | 5.06 | 5.30 | 5.65 | 6.64 |
Others | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Provisions | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Financial debt | 6.23 | 6.07 | 6.08 | 5.64 | 4.47 | 3.65 | 2.66 | 1.67 |
Account payables | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 1.34 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 1.13 |
Other debts | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.54 | 1.92 |
Deferred income and other liabilities | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
Total liabilities | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.50 | 8.06 | 11.90 | 11.23 | 11.12 | 11.73 |
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IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Responsibility for this publication
This publication has been prepared under the only responsibility of BioStrategic Partners.
Recipient
This publication is exclusively designed for "Eligible Counterparties" or "Business Customers". It is not designed to be distributed or transmitted. directly or indirectly. to "Retail Customers".
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This publication has been produced for information only and does not represent investment advice. given that it has been prepared without knowledge of the financial situation. asset position or any other personal circumstance of the persons who may receive it.
Absence of buy or sell offering of financial instruments
This publication does not represent an offering or an incentive to buy or sell the financial instruments outlined in it.
Reliability of information
Every precaution has been taken by Biostrategic Partners to ensure that the information contained in this publication come from sources considered reliable. Unless otherwise specifically indicated in this publication. all opinions. estimations and forecasts given. are those of Biostrategic Partners at that date and may be revised without prior notice.
Exemption from liability
Neither Biostrategic Partners nor SwissLife Banque Privée shall be liable for any damage that may result from the incorrect or incomplete nature of this publication. Neither Biostrategic Partners or SwissLife Banque Privée is not liable for any investment decisions. regardless of their nature. made by the users of this publication on its basis.
Transfer and distribution of this publication
This document was sent. prior to its publication. to the issuer of the financial instruments to which it refers. This document may not be reproduced. distributed or published in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Biostrategic Partners and SwissLife Banque Privée.
Warning concerning performance
Investors should note that any income from financial instruments can fluctuate and that prices can fall as well as rise. Past and simulated performance does not guarantee future performance.
Detection of potential conflicts of interest
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with Biostrategic Partners | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | |||
The analyst has a familial relationship with a founding partner of IPF Partners who holds SpineGuard' bonds with warrants attached
- Biostrategic Partners has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- Biostrategic Partners holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in Biostrategic Partners.
- Biostrategic Partners and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- Biostrategic Partners has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- Biostrategic Partners has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of Biostrategic Partners is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with SwissLifeBanquePrivée | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | |||
- SwissLife Banque Privée has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in SwissLife Banque Privée.
- SwissLife Banque Privée and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of SwissLife Banque Privée is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
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Swiss Life Banque Privée
Société Anonyme au capital de 37.092.080 €
Code établissement bancaire n°11 238
RCS Paris 382 490 001
7. place Vendôme - F 75041 Paris Cedex 01 - France Tél. : +33 1 53 29 14 14
BioStrategic Partners SAS
Société par Actions Simplifiée au capital de 30. 000 €
RCS Paris 530 430 487
140 bis. rue de Rennes - F 75006 Paris - France
Tél. : +33 6 17 96 50 19
BioStrategic Research est une marque déposée de BioStrategic Partners SAS
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Disclaimer
SpineGuard SA published this content on 09 March 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 09 March 2023 10:01:06 UTC.
