Morning Note - 10th January 2023
SPINEGUARD | France - Medtech | |||||||
Q4: a very positive end to the year | BUY | |||||||
▪ Confirmation of the momentum observed in Q3 | Fair value (EUR) | 1.56 | ||||||
▪ | Improvement in the US underway | Price (EUR) | 0.776 | |||||
▪ | Still undervalued | Upside/down side | +101.8% | |||||
Strong growth in Q4
SpineGuard reported last night Q4 sales of EUR 1.58m, up strongly by +37% (+27% at constant exchange rates). On a full year basis, after a modest Q1 (+8%), growth accelerated in H2. Turnover reached EUR5.6m (vs EUR4.4m in 2021), up +27% (+17% at constant exchange rates). This is the 4th consecutive quarter of growth, an evidence of a return to a more established activity after long months disrupted by the successive waves of the pandemic. In the US, SpineGuard sold 2,738 DSG units in 2022 (+11%) with solid growth in Q4 (+18%). In the rest of the world 3,196 units were sold in 2022 (+18%), with Q4 performance being exceptional (+50%). Outside the US, sales were particularly strong in Mexico and several European countries. In Q4, the Group only recorded a small amount of non-operating revenues (cash received from partnerships). The reading of the activity on the ground is therefore clear. The reception of DSG Connect (signal now visible on a tablet) is excellent. This novelty is taking a growing share of surgeries. The sales published for the financial year are in line with our expectations (EUR5.6m).
New organization delivers in the US
In line with the previous quarter, sales in this strategic country are very well oriented. Wishbone Medical, the local partner, has placed new orders (post initial deliveries). Penetration of paediatric spine surgery is therefore well on track.
Lionel Labourdette, PhD, MBA
lionel@biostrategic-research.com+33 617 965 019
Stock data (2023-01-09)
ISIN | FR0011464452 |
Ticker | ALSGD.PA |
Price (EUR) | 0.773 |
Market capitalisation (EURm) | 24.5 |
Free float (%) est. | 96.1 |
Floating capitalisation (EURm) | 23.6 |
Number of shares (,000) | 31,741 |
Average daily volume (3 m) | 136,887 |
12m performance
2,0 | |||||
1,5 | |||||
1,0 | |||||
0,5 | |||||
0,0 | 10/05/22 | 10/09/22 | 10/11/22 | ||
10/01/22 | 10/03/22 | 10/07/22 | |||
ALSGD | ALSGD rel to CAC Small & Mid 190 |
2023: reassuring prospects
The renewed sales momentum should continue in the coming quarters. DSG Connect brings real added value and is a clear marketing asset. This new functionality gives the technology a "facelift" and is generating strong interest among surgeons. The return to normal activity in hospitals (post covid) is also reassuring and surgeries are rescheduled.
.
Valuation and rating
Q3 had given us a glimpse of a better post-pandemic sky. This Q4 confirms the trend. The market will therefore be reassured and will be able to place again its trust in the company. Financial visibility is good (cash until end of 2024), giving the company time to develop its sales but also to advance its R&D programmes which, according to our expectations, will be monetised within 18-24 months (own revenues or deals/licences). We therefore reiterate our positive opinion on this dossier, whose potential will progressively be recognized.
Change (%) | 1 m | 3 m | 12m |
Absolute | +20.2 | +54.3 | -36.2 |
Rel. to CAC SM190 | +15.2 | +36.1 | -26.7 |
Rel. to Next Biotech | +24.7 | +56.6 | -30.1 |
Financials (31/12)
EURm | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 4.4 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.9 |
EBITDA | -1.5 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
EBIT | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
Net income | -2.7 | -1.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
EPS (EUR) | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
Net debt | 4.4 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -2.8 |
Key ratios
2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | |
EV/Sales | 7.5x | 4.2x | 3.2x | 2.4x |
EV/EBITDA | na | na | na | 22.4x |
EV/EBIT | na | na | na | 34.6x |
PER | na | na | na | 50.8x |
ROIC | na | na | na | 17% |
ROE | na | na | na | 7% |
EV/IC | 7.8x | 5.6x | 5.8x | 5.8x |
Gearing | na | -19% | -28% | -42% |
Next communication:FY results - April 13th
The issuer and Biostrategic Partners have agreed that Biostrategic Partners will produce and disseminate investment research as a service
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Profit and Loss
As of 31/12 (EURm) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Sales | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.62 | 7.16 | 8.91 |
Change n-1 | 9.5% | -7.3% | -9.9% | -29.0% | -9.2% | 27.6% | 27.4% | 24.4% |
Other revenues | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total revenues | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 4.85 | 4.41 | 5.62 | 7.16 | 8.91 |
Gross margin | 6.95 | 6.55 | 5.77 | 4.04 | 3.61 | 4.56 | 5.90 | 7.38 |
EBITDA | -2.66 | -0.86 | -0.14 | -1.49 | -1.04 | -0.38 | 0.35 | 0.97 |
Change n-1 | 20% | 68% | 84% | -993% | 30% | 63% | 191% | -178% |
Depreciation & amortisation | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
Goodwill | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
EBIT | -2.96 | -1.11 | -0.43 | -1.84 | -1.35 | -0.71 | 0.01 | 0.63 |
Change n-1 | 18% | 63% | 61% | -326% | 27% | 47% | 102% | -4338% |
Net financial income | -1.16 | -1.21 | -0.64 | -0.84 | -0.30 | -0.40 | -0.28 | -0.15 |
Minorities | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Net profit before tax | -4.13 | -2.32 | -1.07 | -2.68 | -1.65 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Tax | - | -0.02 | 0.39 | -0.04 | -0.08 | - | - | - |
Net in come | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -2.72 | -1.72 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Change n-1 | 1% | 43% | 71% | -296% | 37% | 35% | 77% | 285% |
EPS | -0.72 | -0.34 | -0.05 | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
EPS fully diluted | -0.65 | -0.31 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.05 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.01 |
Gross margin (% of sales) | 85.1% | 86.5% | 84.5% | 83.2% | 81.9% | 81.2% | 82.5% | 82.9% |
EBITDA (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 4.9% | 10.9% |
EBIT (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 0.2% | 7.1% |
Net margin (% of sales) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5.4% |
Cash Flow statement
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Net income | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -2.72 | -1.72 | -1.11 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
Depreciation and amortisation | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
Goodwill | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Change in WCR | 0.26 | -0.08 | 0.27 | 0.64 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.46 | 0.40 |
Others | 1.05 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.13 |
Cash-flow from operations | -2.51 | -0.67 | 0.60 | -0.68 | -1.23 | -0.30 | 0.80 | 1.36 |
Capex | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
Free cash flow | -2.56 | -0.72 | 0.52 | -0.73 | -1.27 | -0.38 | 0.72 | 1.28 |
Acquisitions | - | - | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.33 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
Divestments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Dividends | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital increase | 2.21 | 1.68 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 6.48 | 1.00 | - | - |
Financing (bank and others) | 0.01 | 4.64 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.04 | - | - | - |
Others | -0.26 | -5.73 | -1.54 | -0.99 | -0.91 | -1.19 | -1.13 | -1.06 |
Change in cash over the period | -0.61 | -0.13 | 0.80 | -0.12 | 4.01 | -0.72 | -0.56 | 0.07 |
Opening cash position | 1.80 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 2.01 | 2.03 | 6.33 | 5.76 | 5.36 |
Closing cash position | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 6.04 | 5.61 | 5.21 | 5.43 |
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Balance sheet
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E |
Fixed assets | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.12 |
Intangible assets | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.89 | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.38 |
Goodwill | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
Financial assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Inventories | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.88 |
Account receivables | 1.38 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 0.71 | 0.62 | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
Other receivables | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
Cash and cash equivalents | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.40 | 1.22 | 5.21 | 4.64 | 4.23 | 4.45 |
Prepaid expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other non-current assets | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
Total assets | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.50 | 8.06 | 11.90 | 11.23 | 11.12 | 11.73 |
Equity | -0.21 | -0.50 | 0.59 | -0.01 | 5.06 | 5.30 | 5.65 | 6.64 |
Others | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Provisions | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Financial debt | 6.23 | 6.07 | 6.08 | 5.64 | 4.47 | 3.65 | 2.66 | 1.67 |
Account payables | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 1.34 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.91 | 1.13 |
Other debts | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 1.54 | 1.92 |
Deferred income and other liabilities | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
Total liabilities | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.50 | 8.06 | 11.90 | 11.23 | 11.12 | 11.73 |
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Detection of potential conflicts of interest
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with Biostrategic Partners | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | |||
The analyst has a familial relationship with a founding partner of IPF Partners who holds SpineGuard' bonds with warrants attached
- Biostrategic Partners has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- Biostrategic Partners holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
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- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of Biostrategic Partners is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with SwissLifeBanquePrivée | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | |||
- SwissLife Banque Privée has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in SwissLife Banque Privée.
- SwissLife Banque Privée and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of SwissLife Banque Privée is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
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Swiss Life Banque Privée
Société Anonyme au capital de 37.092.080 €
Code établissement bancaire n°11 238
RCS Paris 382 490 001
7. place Vendôme - F 75041 Paris Cedex 01 - France Tél. : +33 1 53 29 14 14
BioStrategic Partners SAS
Société par Actions Simplifiée au capital de 30. 000 €
RCS Paris 530 430 487
140 bis. rue de Rennes - F 75006 Paris - France
Tél. : +33 6 17 96 50 19
BioStrategic Research est une marque déposée de BioStrategic Partners SAS
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SpineGuard SA published this content on 10 January 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 January 2023 15:22:06 UTC.