Financials Supalai

Equities

SPALI

TH0371010Z05

Real Estate Development & Operations

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-29 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
19.8 ^THB	-.--%		-3.41%	+6.45%

Apr. 23	Supalai Public Company Limited Approves Dividend for 2023, Payable on 21 May 2024	CI
Feb. 20	Supalai Public Company Limited Proposes Dividend for the Second-Half-Year Operations of 2023, Payable on May 21, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	38,361	39,937	44,223	47,459	36,327	38,670	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	50,737	59,934	62,487	47,459	36,327	59,668	58,420	38,670
P/E ratio	7.1 x	9.62 x	6.25 x	5.8 x	6.06 x	5.92 x	5.75 x	5.36 x
Yield	5.59%	4.88%	4.41%	-	-	6.5%	6.75%	6.95%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.63 x	1.94 x	1.52 x	1.38 x	1.17 x	1.2 x	1.18 x	1.12 x
EV / Revenue	2.15 x	2.91 x	2.14 x	1.38 x	1.17 x	1.86 x	1.78 x	1.12 x
EV / EBITDA	7.76 x	11.2 x	7.4 x	4.99 x	4.92 x	7.15 x	6.99 x	4.43 x
EV / FCF	19.1 x	-47.1 x	15.9 x	-	-	19.5 x	13.8 x	9.01 x
FCF Yield	5.22%	-2.12%	6.28%	-	-	5.13%	7.27%	11.1%
Price to Book	1.03 x	1.17 x	1.05 x	-	-	0.7 x	0.65 x	0.61 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,143,079	1,948,141	1,948,141	1,953,054	1,953,054	1,953,054	-	-
Reference price ²	17.90	20.50	22.70	24.30	18.60	19.80	19.80	19.80
Announcement Date	2/25/20	2/23/21	2/22/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	23,557	20,588	29,160	34,486	31,177	32,149	32,743	34,530
EBITDA ¹	6,540	5,363	8,444	9,514	7,386	8,341	8,355	8,725
EBIT ¹	6,422	5,246	8,321	9,387	7,249	7,882	8,073	8,812
Operating Margin	27.26%	25.48%	28.54%	27.22%	23.25%	24.52%	24.66%	25.52%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	6,823	5,594	9,083	10,515	7,670	8,460	8,560	9,271
Net income ¹	5,403	4,251	7,070	8,173	5,989	6,543	6,717	6,984
Net margin	22.93%	20.65%	24.25%	23.7%	19.21%	20.35%	20.51%	20.22%
EPS ²	2.520	2.130	3.630	4.190	3.070	3.346	3.443	3.695
Free Cash Flow ¹	2,651	-1,272	3,926	-	-	3,064	4,246	4,292
FCF margin	11.25%	-6.18%	13.46%	-	-	9.53%	12.97%	12.43%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	40.53%	-	46.49%	-	-	36.73%	50.82%	49.19%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	49.07%	-	55.52%	-	-	46.82%	63.22%	61.45%
Dividend per Share ²	1.000	1.000	1.000	-	-	1.287	1.336	1.377
Announcement Date	2/25/20	2/23/21	2/22/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1
Net sales ¹	12,813	6,653	-	10,792	7,430	10,938	5,433	8,198	13,630	11,133	9,723	5,734	8,165	13,899	7,166	10,111	4,668
EBITDA ¹	3,661	1,441	-	2,918	2,187	3,338	1,442	-	-	3,312	2,440	-	1,940	3,252	1,671	2,463	937
EBIT ¹	3,601	1,383	-	2,857	2,157	3,307	1,412	2,291	3,703	3,281	2,403	1,281	1,903	3,183	1,638	2,428	935.3
Operating Margin	28.11%	20.78%	-	26.47%	29.03%	30.24%	25.99%	27.94%	27.17%	29.47%	24.72%	22.34%	23.3%	22.9%	22.85%	24.01%	20.04%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,899	1,576	-	3,287	2,193	3,603	1,515	2,669	4,185	3,520	2,811	1,419	2,206	3,625	1,531	2,514	972.5
Net income ¹	3,109	1,170	-	2,472	1,720	2,879	1,178	2,075	3,253	2,749	2,171	1,080	1,701	2,781	1,191	2,018	713.4
Net margin	24.27%	17.59%	-	22.9%	23.14%	26.32%	21.68%	25.31%	23.86%	24.69%	22.33%	18.84%	20.83%	20.01%	16.62%	19.95%	15.28%
EPS ²	1.450	0.5700	-	1.270	0.8800	1.480	0.6000	1.060	1.670	1.410	1.110	0.5500	0.8700	1.420	0.6100	1.040	0.3700
Dividend per Share	0.6000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	-	-	-	-	0.7000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	2/25/20	8/11/20	2/23/21	8/10/21	11/9/21	2/22/22	5/11/22	8/9/22	8/9/22	11/8/22	2/21/23	5/9/23	8/8/23	8/8/23	11/14/23	2/20/24	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	12,376	19,997	18,264	-	-	20,998	19,750	-
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.892 x	3.729 x	2.163 x	-	-	2.517 x	2.364 x	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	2,651	-1,272	3,926	-	-	3,064	4,246	4,292
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	15.2%	11%	18%	-	-	12.3%	11.7%	11.7%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	9.14%	6%	10.1%	-	-	7.79%	7.48%	7.83%
Assets ¹	59,108	70,854	69,819	-	-	84,004	89,802	89,247
Book Value Per Share ²	17.30	17.50	21.60	-	-	28.40	30.50	32.70
Cash Flow per Share ²	1.260	-0.5800	2.060	-	-	2.990	3.570	3.390
Capex ¹	55.2	52.9	83.3	-	-	693	344	284
Capex / Sales	0.23%	0.26%	0.29%	-	-	2.16%	1.05%	0.82%
Announcement Date	2/25/20	2/23/21	2/22/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Supalai

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

19.8 THB

Average target price

22.75 THB

Spread / Average Target

+14.90%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Real Estate Development & Operations

	1st Jan change	Capi.
SUPALAI	+6.45%	1.04B
MITSUI FUDOSAN CO., LTD.	+40.33%	28.71B
SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED	-12.31%	26.95B
DLF LIMITED	+21.69%	26.45B
CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED	+5.89%	25.94B
MITSUBISHI ESTATE CO., LTD.	+49.95%	23.39B
CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LTD.	+9.45%	20.4B
EMAAR PROPERTIES	-2.65%	19.76B
SUMITOMO REALTY & DEVELOPMENT CO., LTD.	+29.35%	16.53B
CK ASSET HOLDINGS LIMITED	-13.52%	15.1B

Other Real Estate Development & Operations