Financials YPF Sociedad Anónima

Equities

YPFD

ARP9897X1319

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

End-of-day quote Buenos Aires S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
22,957 ^ARS	+4.36%		+12.16%	+37.56%

Apr. 19	ETF of the week: Diversifying into frontier markets
Apr. 18	Goldman Sachs Raises Price Target on YPF Sociedad Anonima to $20 From $17.40, Maintains Neutral Rating	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capitalization ¹	197,502	337,148	272,900	306,174	1,237,893	9,029,144	9,029,144	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	475,611	851,218	913,924	1,070,651	2,441,470	12,317,320	16,259,937	15,930,036
P/E ratio	5.1 x	-9.87 x	-3.91 x	-120 x	2.76 x	-5.89 x	52.5 x	-
Yield	0.61%	0.68%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capitalization / Revenue	0.45 x	0.5 x	0.32 x	0.21 x	0.33 x	0.45 x	0.59 x	0.59 x
EV / Revenue	1.09 x	1.25 x	1.08 x	0.75 x	0.65 x	0.84 x	1.07 x	1.03 x
EV / EBITDA	3.56 x	5.01 x	6.96 x	2.58 x	2.46 x	3.59 x	3.61 x	3.22 x
EV / FCF	12,936,516 x	15,287,126 x	9,660,931 x	5,640,268 x	8,103,235 x	63,597,307 x	405,015,533 x	76,346,648 x
FCF Yield	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Price to Book	0.55 x	0.62 x	0.4 x	-	-	-	-	-
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	393,313	393,313	393,313	393,313	393,313	393,313	393,313	-
Reference price ²	502.2	857.2	693.8	778.4	3,147	22,957	22,957	22,957
Announcement Date	3/7/19	3/6/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/10/23	3/6/24	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net sales ¹	435,820	678,595	846,606	1,430,207	3,774,415	14,647,287	15,226,297	15,417,987
EBITDA ¹	133,529	169,857	131,289	414,758	993,011	3,433,579	4,507,900	4,948,197
EBIT ¹	43,780	20,417	-117,925	66,984	522,902	736,976	1,728,130	2,056,909
Operating Margin	10.05%	3.01%	-13.93%	4.68%	13.85%	5.03%	11.35%	13.34%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	90,144	-7,010	-82,168	71,845	614,950	-217,454	1,622,385	2,366,689
Net income ¹	38,613	-34,071	-97,699	-2,485	448,334	-1,110,117	1,036,066	1,292,414
Net margin	8.86%	-5.02%	-11.54%	-0.17%	11.88%	-7.58%	6.8%	8.38%
EPS ²	98.43	-86.85	-177.4	-6.482	1,141	-2,833	437.1	-
Free Cash Flow	36,765	55,682	94,600	189,823	301,296	193,677	40,146	208,654
FCF margin	8.44%	8.21%	11.17%	13.27%	7.98%	1.32%	0.26%	1.35%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	27.53%	32.78%	72.05%	45.77%	30.34%	5.64%	0.89%	4.22%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	95.21%	-	-	-	67.2%	-	3.87%	16.14%
Dividend per Share ²	3.051	5.850	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/7/19	3/6/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/10/23	3/6/24	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	324,937	362,473	391,098	425,651	650,788	830,618	932,391	970,574	1,252,103	1,576,400	3,548,652	3,577,068	4,243,033	4,270,118	3,961,382
EBITDA ¹	105,175	115,519	90,104	113,819	201,068	240,252	187,281	239,094	287,626	324,100	915,508	1,104,722	1,249,803	1,229,544	1,197,609
EBIT ¹	30,078	42,844	-21,175	44,497	113,938	129,108	93,741	76,721	63,249	41,650	451,831	474,167	644,826	585,637	352,232
Operating Margin	9.26%	11.82%	-5.41%	10.45%	17.51%	15.54%	10.05%	7.9%	5.05%	2.64%	12.73%	13.26%	15.2%	13.71%	8.89%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	20,278	39,040	-2,269	52,811	131,230	-	124,453	97,561	130,219	-47,950	-846,972	161,966	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-46,475	23,224	26,685	29,274	105,896	108,579	93,339	78,095	95,875	-44,800	-1,573,794	241,982	437,521	374,125	253,985
Net margin	-14.3%	6.41%	6.82%	6.88%	16.27%	13.07%	10.01%	8.05%	7.66%	-2.84%	-44.35%	6.76%	10.31%	8.76%	6.41%
EPS ²	-	-	-	-	-	-	239.5	-	-	-115.5	-4,017	-142.9	193.4	218.6	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	8/10/21	11/9/21	3/3/22	5/11/22	8/10/22	11/10/22	3/10/23	5/11/23	8/10/23	11/9/23	3/6/24	-	-	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Net Debt ¹	278,109	514,070	641,024	764,477	1,203,577	5,753,637	7,230,793	6,900,892
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.083 x	3.026 x	4.883 x	1.843 x	1.212 x	1.676 x	1.604 x	1.395 x
Free Cash Flow	36,765	55,682	94,600	189,823	301,296	193,677	40,146	208,654
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	15.1%	-7.56%	-11.4%	-0.28%	23.7%	9.96%	16.5%	15.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.15%	-2.65%	-3.98%	-0.1%	9.06%	-5.15%	8.42%	12.2%
Assets ¹	749,869	1,283,664	2,452,344	2,494,853	4,950,409	21,553,583	12,303,362	10,620,544
Book Value Per Share	916.0	1,383	1,725	-	-	-	-	-
Cash Flow per Share ²	-	-	533.0	1,012	2,915	12,769	8,315	-
Capex ¹	88,293	161,455	114,616	264,909	841,460	4,807,243	4,312,648	3,840,581
Capex / Sales	20.26%	23.79%	13.54%	18.52%	22.29%	32.82%	28.32%	24.91%
Announcement Date	3/7/19	3/6/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/10/23	3/6/24	-	-

¹ARS in Million²ARS

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for YPF Sociedad Anónima

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

22,957 ARS

Average target price

7,140 ARS

Spread / Average Target

-68.90%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
YPF SOCIEDAD ANÓNIMA	+37.56%	10.32B
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	+12.39%	221B
BP PLC	+12.58%	107B
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL CORPORATION	+17.36%	103B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+33.72%	71.49B
PHILLIPS 66	+13.72%	64.2B
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION	+27.54%	54.22B
INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED	+32.11%	28.33B
FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORPORATION	-11.77%	20.79B
REPSOL S.A.	+9.44%	19.12B

Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing