Financials Canadian National Railway Company

Equities

CNR

CA1363751027

Ground Freight & Logistics

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:15:05 2024-04-26 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
171.2 ^CAD	+0.50%		-2.40%	+2.82%

Apr. 26	Transcript : Canadian National Railway Company - Shareholder/Analyst Call
Apr. 24	TSX loses winning streak as railroad shares slide	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	84,035	99,385	109,745	108,728	107,541	108,949	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	97,767	111,722	121,392	123,829	125,539	129,318	130,674	130,691
P/E ratio	20.1 x	28 x	22.6 x	21.6 x	19.5 x	21.4 x	19.1 x	17.9 x
Yield	1.83%	1.64%	1.58%	1.82%	1.9%	1.98%	2.11%	2.25%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.63 x	7.19 x	7.58 x	6.36 x	6.39 x	6.11 x	5.78 x	5.48 x
EV / Revenue	6.55 x	8.08 x	8.39 x	7.24 x	7.46 x	7.26 x	6.94 x	6.58 x
EV / EBITDA	13.7 x	16.3 x	16.8 x	14.4 x	14.9 x	14.3 x	13.4 x	12.5 x
EV / FCF	49.1 x	33.8 x	29.8 x	31.6 x	33.2 x	35.8 x	31.7 x	32.3 x
FCF Yield	2.04%	2.96%	3.36%	3.16%	3.01%	2.79%	3.15%	3.09%
Price to Book	4.64 x	5.06 x	4.79 x	5.05 x	5.45 x	5.64 x	5.56 x	5.23 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	715,370	710,200	706,300	676,000	645,695	636,200	-	-
Reference price ²	117.5	139.9	155.4	160.8	166.6	171.2	171.2	171.2
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/25/22	1/24/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	14,917	13,819	14,477	17,107	16,828	17,819	18,837	19,872
EBITDA ¹	7,155	6,852	7,220	8,591	8,414	9,041	9,776	10,465
EBIT ¹	5,708	5,263	5,622	6,862	6,597	7,120	7,775	8,405
Operating Margin	38.27%	38.09%	38.83%	40.11%	39.2%	39.96%	41.28%	42.29%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	5,429	4,544	6,333	6,763	6,488	6,693	7,230	7,740
Net income ¹	4,216	3,562	4,892	5,118	5,625	5,067	5,487	5,921
Net margin	28.26%	25.78%	33.79%	29.92%	33.43%	28.44%	29.13%	29.79%
EPS ²	5.830	5.000	6.890	7.440	8.530	7.998	8.949	9.561
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,992	3,302	4,080	3,917	3,778	3,610	4,117	4,042
FCF margin	13.35%	23.89%	28.18%	22.9%	22.45%	20.26%	21.86%	20.34%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	27.84%	48.19%	56.51%	45.59%	44.9%	39.93%	42.12%	38.62%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	47.25%	92.7%	83.4%	76.53%	67.16%	71.24%	75.04%	68.26%
Dividend per Share ²	2.150	2.300	2.460	2.930	3.160	3.385	3.616	3.861
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/25/22	1/24/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	3,753	3,708	4,344	4,513	4,542	4,313	4,057	3,987	4,471	4,249	4,364	4,443	4,773	4,517	4,610
EBITDA ¹	1,962	1,657	2,204	2,367	2,363	2,110	2,049	1,974	2,281	2,008	2,236	2,321	2,478	2,214	2,417
EBIT ¹	1,579	1,237	1,781	1,932	1,912	1,662	1,600	1,517	1,818	1,546	1,766	1,836	1,973	1,701	1,899
Operating Margin	42.07%	33.36%	41%	42.81%	42.1%	38.53%	39.44%	38.05%	40.66%	36.39%	40.48%	41.32%	41.35%	37.66%	41.2%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,572	1,212	1,755	1,915	1,881	1,617	1,548	1,451	1,872	1,451	1,650	1,728	1,878	1,584	1,754
Net income ¹	1,199	918	1,325	1,455	1,420	1,220	1,167	1,108	2,130	1,103	1,248	1,307	1,408	1,203	1,332
Net margin	31.95%	24.76%	30.5%	32.24%	31.26%	28.29%	28.77%	27.79%	47.64%	25.96%	28.61%	29.41%	29.51%	26.63%	28.89%
EPS ²	1.690	1.310	1.920	2.130	2.100	1.820	1.760	1.690	3.290	1.720	1.964	2.054	2.248	1.914	2.198
Dividend per Share ²	0.6150	0.7325	0.7325	0.7325	0.7325	0.7900	0.7900	0.7900	0.7900	0.8450	0.8426	0.8942	0.8451	0.9118	0.9118
Announcement Date	1/25/22	4/26/22	7/26/22	10/25/22	1/24/23	4/24/23	7/25/23	10/24/23	1/23/24	4/23/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	13,732	12,337	11,647	15,101	17,998	20,368	21,725	21,742
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.919 x	1.8 x	1.613 x	1.758 x	2.139 x	2.253 x	2.222 x	2.078 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,992	3,302	4,080	3,917	3,778	3,610	4,117	4,042
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	23.6%	18.9%	23.1%	23.2%	27.1%	25.8%	29.6%	30.6%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	9.92%	8.04%	10.5%	10.3%	10.9%	9.44%	9.92%	10.3%
Assets ¹	42,500	44,294	46,671	49,600	51,664	53,656	55,303	57,483
Book Value Per Share ²	25.30	27.70	32.40	31.90	30.60	30.40	30.80	32.80
Cash Flow per Share ²	8.200	8.650	9.810	9.690	10.60	11.60	13.20	14.70
Capex ¹	3,865	2,863	2,891	2,750	3,187	3,429	3,563	3,635
Capex / Sales	25.91%	20.72%	19.97%	16.08%	18.94%	19.24%	18.91%	18.29%
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/25/22	1/24/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Canadian National Railway Company

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

171.2 CAD

Average target price

182.4 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+6.52%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Ground Freight & Logistics

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COMPANY	+2.82%	79.59B
CANADIAN PACIFIC KANSAS CITY LIMITED	+6.48%	76.06B
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN	-.--%	26.71B
XPO, INC.	+26.61%	12.9B
U-HAUL HOLDING COMPANY	-9.58%	12.39B
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.	-18.72%	8.22B
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.	-18.66%	7.55B
RUMO S.A.	-9.19%	7.52B
RYDER SYSTEM, INC.	+5.99%	5.34B
ALD	-3.88%	5.4B

Other Ground Freight & Logistics