Financials Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Equities

CNQ

CA1363851017

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-04-26 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
106.5 ^CAD	+0.79%		+1.15%	+22.70%

Apr. 23	Canadian Natural Resources' "Outperform" Rating, $120 Price Target Maintained by RBC Capital Markets	MT
Apr. 23	Desjardins Downgrades Canadian Natural Resources to Hold, Price Target at CA$110	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	49,743	36,129	62,917	83,238	94,051	114,204	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	70,096	57,093	76,558	93,272	103,448	123,959	123,765	122,988
P/E ratio	9.25 x	-82.7 x	8.27 x	7.9 x	11.6 x	13.8 x	11.9 x	12.8 x
Yield	3.57%	5.56%	3.74%	6.12%	4.32%	3.97%	4.1%	4.45%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.17 x	2.14 x	2.09 x	1.97 x	2.61 x	3.27 x	3.13 x	3.1 x
EV / Revenue	3.06 x	3.38 x	2.55 x	2.21 x	2.88 x	3.54 x	3.39 x	3.34 x
EV / EBITDA	6.17 x	10.3 x	4.86 x	4.22 x	6.13 x	7.06 x	6.4 x	6.47 x
EV / FCF	11.2 x	24.6 x	7.67 x	6.36 x	-	13.1 x	12.7 x	13 x
FCF Yield	8.92%	4.06%	13%	15.7%	-	7.63%	7.89%	7.7%
Price to Book	1.42 x	1.12 x	1.69 x	2.17 x	2.34 x	2.79 x	2.66 x	2.58 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,184,356	1,181,058	1,177,118	1,107,031	1,083,415	1,072,138	-	-
Reference price ²	42.00	30.59	53.45	75.19	86.81	106.5	106.5	106.5
Announcement Date	3/5/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	22,871	16,893	30,057	42,298	35,968	34,971	36,519	36,833
EBITDA ¹	11,361	5,519	15,750	22,113	16,877	17,550	19,341	19,023
EBIT ¹	5,815	-527	10,026	14,760	10,464	10,794	12,596	11,592
Operating Margin	25.43%	-3.12%	33.36%	34.9%	29.09%	30.87%	34.49%	31.47%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,956	-873	9,911	13,704	10,165	10,418	11,788	11,733
Net income ¹	5,416	-435	7,664	10,937	8,233	8,517	9,533	8,729
Net margin	23.68%	-2.58%	25.5%	25.86%	22.89%	24.36%	26.1%	23.7%
EPS ²	4.540	-0.3700	6.460	9.520	7.470	7.700	8.918	8.338
Free Cash Flow ¹	6,254	2,320	9,985	14,655	-	9,461	9,768	9,466
FCF margin	27.34%	13.73%	33.22%	34.65%	-	27.05%	26.75%	25.7%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	55.05%	42.04%	63.4%	66.27%	-	53.91%	50.5%	49.76%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	115.47%	-	130.28%	133.99%	-	111.08%	102.47%	108.45%
Dividend per Share ²	1.500	1.700	2.000	4.600	3.750	4.231	4.369	4.738
Announcement Date	3/5/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	7,711	9,213	10,677	11,475	10,457	9,689	8,630	7,890	9,895	9,553	8,272	8,170	9,026	8,724	8,917
EBITDA ¹	4,299	5,136	6,007	6,396	6,130	4,270	3,868	3,069	5,243	4,881	3,787	4,118	4,774	5,158	4,354
EBIT ¹	2,857	3,663	4,600	5,033	4,676	1,141	2,450	1,672	3,706	2,820	2,149	2,542	3,201	3,133	-
Operating Margin	37.05%	39.76%	43.08%	43.86%	44.72%	11.78%	28.39%	21.19%	37.45%	29.52%	25.98%	31.12%	35.47%	35.92%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	2,809	3,410	4,077	4,532	3,765	1,330	2,288	1,772	3,147	2,958	1,954	2,334	2,840	2,557	2,558
Net income ¹	2,202	2,534	3,101	3,502	2,814	1,520	1,799	1,463	2,344	2,627	1,508	1,866	2,074	1,846	1,895
Net margin	28.56%	27.5%	29.04%	30.52%	26.91%	15.69%	20.85%	18.54%	23.69%	27.5%	18.23%	22.84%	22.97%	21.16%	21.26%
EPS ²	1.860	2.140	2.630	3.000	2.490	1.360	1.620	1.320	2.130	2.410	1.427	1.746	2.217	2.305	2.118
Dividend per Share ²	0.5875	0.5900	0.7500	0.7500	2.250	0.8500	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000	1.050	1.033	1.050	1.050	1.070	1.067
Announcement Date	11/4/21	3/3/22	5/5/22	8/4/22	11/3/22	3/2/23	5/4/23	8/3/23	11/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	20,353	20,964	13,641	10,034	9,397	9,754	9,561	8,784
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.791 x	3.799 x	0.8661 x	0.4538 x	0.5568 x	0.5558 x	0.4943 x	0.4617 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	6,254	2,320	9,985	14,655	-	9,461	9,768	9,466
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	16.2%	-1.29%	22.1%	28.6%	21.1%	20.2%	23.6%	23.5%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	7.24%	-0.57%	9.77%	14.3%	10.8%	10.1%	13.3%	-
Assets ¹	74,840	76,698	78,469	76,403	76,048	84,087	71,515	-
Book Value Per Share ²	29.50	27.40	31.60	34.60	37.10	38.20	40.00	41.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	8.610	4.130	11.40	17.20	13.90	14.00	15.50	14.80
Capex ¹	3,608	2,560	4,493	5,103	4,865	5,561	5,464	4,529
Capex / Sales	15.78%	15.15%	14.95%	12.06%	13.53%	15.9%	14.96%	12.3%
Announcement Date	3/5/20	3/4/21	3/3/22	3/2/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

106.5 CAD

Average target price

110.2 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+3.42%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED	+22.70%	83.43B
CHEVRON CORPORATION	+11.22%	306B
CONOCOPHILLIPS	+12.21%	153B
CNOOC LIMITED	+51.38%	124B
EOG RESOURCES, INC.	+12.20%	78.06B
PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY	+19.56%	62.81B
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+13.52%	60.08B
HESS CORPORATION	+12.74%	49.91B
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY, INC.	+33.97%	37.05B
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD	-9.01%	34.99B

Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production