Financials Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited

Equities

CP

CA13646K1084

Ground Freight & Logistics

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-04-26 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
111.6 ^CAD	-0.45%		-4.11%	+6.48%

Apr. 25	Scotiabank Cuts Canadian Pacific Kansas City's Price Target to CA$124 From CA$126, Keeps Sector Perform Rating	MT
Apr. 25	Evercore ISI Trims Canadian Pacific Kansas City Price Target to $89 From $90, Maintains Outperform Rating	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	45,404	59,303	84,573	93,896	97,700	104,118	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	54,028	68,927	104,631	113,096	119,730	123,539	122,894	124,100
P/E ratio	18.9 x	24.6 x	21.8 x	26.8 x	24.9 x	26.7 x	22.2 x	19.2 x
Yield	0.95%	0.81%	0.84%	0.75%	0.72%	0.68%	0.73%	0.86%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.83 x	7.69 x	10.6 x	10.7 x	7.78 x	7.06 x	6.54 x	6.05 x
EV / Revenue	6.93 x	8.94 x	13.1 x	12.8 x	9.54 x	8.37 x	7.72 x	7.21 x
EV / EBITDA	14.1 x	16.9 x	26 x	26.6 x	18.6 x	16.6 x	14.6 x	13.3 x
EV / FCF	40.2 x	60.9 x	48.5 x	43.8 x	71.7 x	42.7 x	32.2 x	26.8 x
FCF Yield	2.49%	1.64%	2.06%	2.29%	1.39%	2.34%	3.11%	3.73%
Price to Book	6.52 x	8.17 x	1.83 x	2.41 x	2.36 x	2.26 x	2.15 x	2.06 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	685,806	671,558	929,573	930,124	931,895	932,705	-	-
Reference price ²	66.21	88.31	90.98	101.0	104.8	111.6	111.6	111.6
Announcement Date	1/29/20	1/27/21	1/27/22	1/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	7,792	7,710	7,995	8,814	12,555	14,754	15,926	17,214
EBITDA ¹	3,830	4,090	4,017	4,256	6,425	7,451	8,445	9,354
EBIT ¹	3,124	3,311	3,206	3,403	4,882	5,718	6,663	7,497
Operating Margin	40.09%	42.94%	40.1%	38.61%	38.88%	38.76%	41.83%	43.55%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,146	3,202	3,620	4,145	-3,053	5,198	6,261	7,118
Net income ¹	2,440	2,444	2,852	3,517	3,927	3,917	4,712	5,325
Net margin	31.31%	31.7%	35.67%	39.9%	31.28%	26.55%	29.58%	30.93%
EPS ²	3.504	3.594	4.180	3.770	4.210	4.175	5.033	5.815
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,343	1,131	2,156	2,585	1,669	2,891	3,819	4,626
FCF margin	17.24%	14.67%	26.97%	29.33%	13.29%	19.59%	23.98%	26.88%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	35.07%	27.65%	53.67%	60.74%	25.98%	38.8%	45.23%	49.46%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	55.04%	46.28%	75.6%	73.5%	42.5%	73.8%	81.06%	86.88%
Dividend per Share ²	0.6280	0.7120	0.7600	0.7600	0.7600	0.7613	0.8202	0.9647
Announcement Date	1/29/20	1/27/21	1/27/22	1/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	2,040	1,838	2,202	2,312	2,462	2,266	3,174	3,339	3,776	3,520	3,544	3,645	3,984	3,839	3,810
EBITDA ¹	1,038	745	1,098	1,168	1,225	1,054	1,475	1,624	2,018	1,726	1,763	1,886	2,123	1,971	1,992
EBIT ¹	832	535	887	955	1,006	829	1,065	1,278	1,561	1,259	1,334	1,456	1,683	1,536	1,585
Operating Margin	40.78%	29.11%	40.28%	41.31%	40.86%	36.58%	33.57%	38.27%	41.34%	35.77%	37.65%	39.93%	42.24%	40.02%	41.61%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	683	675	1,010	1,087	1,373	963	-6,347	1,038	1,293	1,033	1,214	1,344	1,564	1,365	1,414
Net income ¹	532	590	765	891	1,271	800	1,324	780	1,023	775	920.1	1,013	1,172	1,079	1,107
Net margin	26.08%	32.1%	34.74%	38.54%	51.62%	35.3%	41.71%	23.36%	27.09%	22.02%	25.96%	27.79%	29.42%	28.1%	29.06%
EPS ²	0.7400	0.6300	0.8200	0.9600	1.360	0.8600	1.420	0.8400	1.100	0.8300	0.9780	1.079	1.252	1.168	1.202
Dividend per Share ²	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.2025	0.2025
Announcement Date	1/27/22	4/27/22	7/28/22	10/26/22	1/31/23	4/26/23	7/27/23	10/25/23	1/30/24	4/24/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	8,624	9,624	20,058	19,200	22,030	19,421	18,776	19,983
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.252 x	2.353 x	4.993 x	4.511 x	3.429 x	2.606 x	2.223 x	2.136 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,343	1,131	2,156	2,585	1,669	2,891	3,819	4,626
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	33.4%	33.4%	12.5%	9.68%	9.77%	9.04%	10.2%	11.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.5%	10.6%	6.21%	4.96%	4.67%	4.92%	5.72%	6.3%
Assets ¹	23,239	23,005	45,908	70,836	84,005	79,576	82,406	84,526
Book Value Per Share ²	10.10	10.80	49.80	41.80	44.50	49.30	52.00	54.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	4.290	4.120	5.400	4.440	4.430	6.120	7.200	8.170
Capex ¹	1,647	1,671	1,532	1,557	2,468	2,704	2,742	2,771
Capex / Sales	21.14%	21.67%	19.16%	17.67%	19.66%	18.32%	17.22%	16.1%
Announcement Date	1/29/20	1/27/21	1/27/22	1/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

111.6 CAD

Average target price

122.9 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+10.10%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Ground Freight & Logistics

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CANADIAN PACIFIC KANSAS CITY LIMITED	+6.48%	76.06B
CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COMPANY	+2.82%	79.59B
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN	-.--%	26.71B
XPO, INC.	+26.61%	12.9B
U-HAUL HOLDING COMPANY	-9.58%	12.39B
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.	-18.72%	8.22B
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.	-18.66%	7.55B
RUMO S.A.	-9.19%	7.52B
RYDER SYSTEM, INC.	+5.99%	5.34B
ALD	-3.88%	5.4B

Other Ground Freight & Logistics