CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY COMPANY LIMITED |
Market Closed -
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 16.12 HKD | +2.03% |
|
+6.05% | -23.24% |
| Apr. 12 | China stocks track Asian markets lower on rate concerns | RE |
| Apr. 03 | China stocks end lower, tracking Asian peers on US rate cut concerns | RE |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 84,152 | 110,773 | 155,513 | 142,372 | 123,658 | 58,697 | 58,697 | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 91,569 | 127,770 | 163,061 | 153,521 | 143,173 | 91,517 | 81,213 | 77,903 |
| P/E ratio | 27.5 x | 26.8 x | 44.2 x | 28.4 x | 23.4 x | 15.7 x | 10.6 x | 9.42 x |
| Yield | 0.84% | 0.64% | 0.68% | 1.06% | 1.29% | 2.56% | 3.95% | 4.62% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 1.22 x | 1.4 x | 2.05 x | 1.62 x | 1.34 x | 0.76 x | 0.57 x | 0.54 x |
| EV / Revenue | 1.33 x | 1.62 x | 2.14 x | 1.74 x | 1.55 x | 0.93 x | 0.79 x | 0.72 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 16.1 x | 17.3 x | 26.8 x | 19.7 x | 16.3 x | 9.15 x | 8.13 x | 7.15 x |
| EV / FCF | 31 x | -24.5 x | -212 x | -33.4 x | 40.9 x | 18 x | 20.1 x | 12.5 x |
| FCF Yield | 3.22% | -4.09% | -0.47% | -2.99% | 2.44% | 5.54% | 4.98% | 7.98% |
| Price to Book | 3.32 x | 3.78 x | 4.7 x | 3.88 x | 3.08 x | 1.33 x | 1.22 x | 1.13 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 3,927,708 | 3,935,015 | 3,948,109 | 3,953,179 | 3,955,196 | 3,933,635 | 3,933,635 | - |
| Reference price 2 | 21.43 | 28.15 | 39.39 | 36.01 | 31.26 | 14.92 | 14.92 | 14.92 |
| Announcement Date | 3/27/19 | 3/25/20 | 3/24/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/29/23 | 3/26/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 68,977 | 79,030 | 76,035 | 88,141 | 92,593 | 98,624 | 102,960 | 108,557 |
| EBITDA 1 | 5,674 | 7,405 | 6,092 | 7,774 | 8,779 | 10,006 | 9,994 | 10,899 |
| EBIT 1 | 3,835 | 4,649 | 3,955 | 5,378 | 5,901 | 6,705 | 7,033 | 7,788 |
| Operating Margin | 5.56% | 5.88% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.37% | 6.8% | 6.83% | 7.17% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 3,853 | 5,605 | 4,155 | 5,868 | 6,502 | 6,312 | 7,181 | 8,058 |
| Net income 1 | 3,043 | 4,105 | 3,525 | 5,026 | 5,303 | 4,809 | 5,562 | 6,262 |
| Net margin | 4.41% | 5.19% | 4.64% | 5.7% | 5.73% | 4.88% | 5.4% | 5.77% |
| EPS 2 | 0.7780 | 1.049 | 0.8920 | 1.267 | 1.336 | 1.216 | 1.410 | 1.584 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 2,953 | -5,225 | -768.5 | -4,590 | 3,497 | 4,500 | 4,042 | 6,216 |
| FCF margin | 4.28% | -6.61% | -1.01% | -5.21% | 3.78% | 4.53% | 3.93% | 5.73% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 52.05% | - | - | - | 39.83% | 48.05% | 40.44% | 57.03% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 97.04% | - | - | - | 65.94% | 80.67% | 72.66% | 99.26% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 0.1810 | 0.1810 | 0.2680 | 0.3810 | 0.4020 | 0.4890 | 0.5892 | 0.6896 |
| Announcement Date | 3/27/19 | 3/25/20 | 3/24/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/29/23 | 3/26/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 S1 | 2019 S2 | 2020 S1 | 2020 S2 | 2021 S1 | 2021 S2 | 2022 S1 | 2022 S2 | 2023 S1 | 2023 S2 | 2024 S1 | 2024 S2 | 2025 S1 | 2025 S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 39,857 | 39,173 | 37,533 | 38,501 | 45,905 | 42,236 | 47,722 | 44,871 | 51,119 | 47,506 | 53,451 | 49,307 | 57,164 | 51,729 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT 1 | - | - | 1,714 | 2,242 | 3,030 | 2,348 | 2,768 | 3,133 | 3,540 | 3,166 | 3,768 | 3,174 | 4,248 | 3,740 |
| Operating Margin | - | - | 4.57% | 5.82% | 6.6% | 5.56% | 5.8% | 6.98% | 6.92% | 6.66% | 7.05% | 6.44% | 7.43% | 7.23% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | - | - | - | 2,752 | - | 2,471 | 4,148 | 2,355 | 3,703 | 2,609 | - | - | - | - |
| Net income 1 | - | - | 1,212 | 2,314 | 2,947 | 2,079 | 3,751 | 1,552 | 3,020 | 1,789 | - | - | - | - |
| Net margin | - | - | 3.23% | 6.01% | 6.42% | 4.92% | 7.86% | 3.46% | 5.91% | 3.77% | - | - | - | - |
| EPS | - | - | 0.3090 | - | - | - | - | 0.3910 | 0.7620 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 8/28/19 | 3/25/20 | 8/26/20 | 3/24/21 | 8/25/21 | 3/30/22 | 8/24/22 | 3/29/23 | 8/30/23 | 3/26/24 | - | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 7,417 | 16,997 | 7,547 | 11,149 | 19,515 | 16,435 | 22,516 | 19,206 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 1.307 x | 2.295 x | 1.239 x | 1.434 x | 2.223 x | 1.643 x | 2.253 x | 1.762 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 2,953 | -5,225 | -769 | -4,590 | 3,497 | 4,500 | 4,042 | 6,216 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 12.7% | 15.1% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 12.6% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 4.88% | 5.66% | 4.44% | 5.64% | 4.91% | 4.13% | 4.82% | 5.29% |
| Assets 1 | 62,298 | 72,534 | 79,342 | 89,121 | 107,957 | 116,516 | 115,427 | 118,464 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 6.460 | 7.440 | 8.380 | 9.280 | 10.10 | 11.20 | 12.30 | 13.20 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 1.630 | 1.610 | 1.350 | 1.910 | 2.100 | 1.970 | 1.960 | 2.350 |
| Capex 1 | 3,410 | 11,532 | 6,116 | 12,135 | 4,836 | 4,640 | 3,816 | 3,769 |
| Capex / Sales | 4.94% | 14.59% | 8.04% | 13.77% | 5.22% | 4.68% | 3.71% | 3.47% |
| Announcement Date | 3/27/19 | 3/25/20 | 3/24/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/29/23 | 3/26/24 | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
A-
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
28
Last Close Price
14.92
CNY
Average target price
23.37
CNY
Spread / Average Target
+56.63%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.24% | 8.1B | |
| +4.71% | 24.52B | |
| -4.24% | 6.82B | |
| +8.16% | 6.26B | |
| -3.85% | 5.36B | |
| -3.18% | 5.16B | |
| +19.79% | 4.98B | |
| +1.41% | 5.02B | |
| +22.01% | 4.53B | |
| -3.99% | 2.92B |
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