Financials China Railway Group Limited

Equities

601390

CNE100000866

Construction & Engineering

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT 5-day change 1st Jan Change
6.98 CNY +0.58% Intraday chart for China Railway Group Limited -3.46% +22.89%

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Capitalization 1 139,050 119,432 132,027 129,563 129,985 159,477 - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 204,993 184,721 247,724 280,201 315,647 418,484 432,871 433,401
P/E ratio 6.25 x 5.47 x 5.58 x 4.64 x 4.4 x 4.75 x 4.29 x 4.13 x
Yield 2.85% 3.42% 3.39% 3.6% 3.7% 3.53% 3.82% 4.15%
Capitalization / Revenue 0.16 x 0.12 x 0.12 x 0.11 x 0.1 x 0.12 x 0.11 x 0.11 x
EV / Revenue 0.24 x 0.19 x 0.23 x 0.24 x 0.25 x 0.31 x 0.31 x 0.29 x
EV / EBITDA 4.91 x 4.3 x 5.1 x 5.25 x 5.45 x 6.15 x 5.78 x 5.45 x
EV / FCF -11.4 x -17.4 x -6.1 x -17.3 x -17.4 x 56.5 x 11.7 x 10.2 x
FCF Yield -8.77% -5.75% -16.4% -5.78% -5.75% 1.77% 8.54% 9.84%
Price to Book 0.77 x 0.62 x 0.52 x 0.54 x - 0.48 x 0.44 x 0.41 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 24,570,929 24,570,929 24,570,929 24,752,196 24,752,196 24,750,630 - -
Reference price 2 5.940 5.270 5.790 5.560 5.680 6.980 6.980 6.980
Announcement Date 3/30/20 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/23 3/28/24 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net sales 1 848,440 971,405 1,070,417 1,151,501 1,260,841 1,332,383 1,405,505 1,501,515
EBITDA 1 41,709 42,926 48,559 53,324 57,962 68,041 74,924 79,564
EBIT 1 31,882 33,578 38,782 43,049 46,282 52,858 57,980 58,367
Operating Margin 3.76% 3.46% 3.62% 3.74% 3.67% 3.97% 4.13% 3.89%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 31,332 33,383 37,586 42,583 46,070 51,429 56,395 61,262
Net income 1 23,678 25,188 27,618 31,276 33,483 36,749 40,673 42,054
Net margin 2.79% 2.59% 2.58% 2.72% 2.66% 2.76% 2.89% 2.8%
EPS 2 0.9500 0.9630 1.037 1.198 1.292 1.469 1.628 1.692
Free Cash Flow 1 -17,981 -10,627 -40,643 -16,192 -18,154 7,407 36,979 42,638
FCF margin -2.12% -1.09% -3.8% -1.41% -1.44% 0.56% 2.63% 2.84%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA) - - - - - 10.89% 49.36% 53.59%
FCF Conversion (Net income) - - - - - 20.16% 90.92% 101.39%
Dividend per Share 2 0.1690 0.1800 0.1960 0.2000 0.2100 0.2464 0.2670 0.2897
Announcement Date 3/30/20 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/23 3/28/24 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December 2019 S1 2019 S2 2020 S1 2020 S2 2021 S1 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 S2 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 S1 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Net sales 361,887 488,956 416,303 558,429 498,227 271,320 302,492 575,045 266,537 292,867 559,405 288,780 303,316 271,974 317,499 - -
EBITDA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT - - - 19,751 18,205 9,613 11,318 19,640 10,203 10,789 20,992 9,521 12,535 10,751 11,546 - -
Operating Margin - - - 3.54% 3.65% 3.54% 3.74% 3.42% 3.83% 3.68% 3.75% 3.3% 4.13% 3.95% 3.64% - -
Earnings before Tax (EBT) - - - 19,514 - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net income - - - 13,491 - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net margin - - - 2.42% - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EPS 1 - - - - - 0.2770 0.3100 - 0.2940 0.2600 - 0.3200 0.3300 0.3050 0.3000 0.3080 0.3800
Dividend per Share - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Announcement Date 8/30/19 3/30/20 8/28/20 3/30/21 8/30/21 10/29/21 3/30/22 3/30/22 4/30/22 8/30/22 8/30/22 10/28/22 3/30/23 4/28/23 8/30/23 10/30/23 3/28/24
1CNY
Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net Debt 1 65,943 65,289 115,697 150,639 185,662 259,007 273,394 273,924
Net Cash position 1 - - - - - - - -
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.581 x 1.521 x 2.383 x 2.825 x 3.203 x 3.807 x 3.649 x 3.443 x
Free Cash Flow 1 -17,981 -10,627 -40,643 -16,192 -18,154 7,407 36,979 42,638
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) 11.5% 11.9% 10.4% 12.1% 11.8% 10.3% 10.3% 10%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) 2.37% 2.23% 2.2% 2.1% 1.95% 1.99% 2.17% 1.98%
Assets 1 999,264 1,127,980 1,255,346 1,487,412 1,721,214 1,851,318 1,874,605 2,123,932
Book Value Per Share 2 7.730 8.490 11.20 10.30 - 14.70 16.00 17.20
Cash Flow per Share 2 0.9000 1.260 0.5300 1.760 1.550 2.260 3.040 2.920
Capex 1 18,258 41,622 53,713 59,744 56,518 63,258 71,059 63,994
Capex / Sales 2.15% 4.28% 5.02% 5.19% 4.48% 4.75% 5.06% 4.26%
Announcement Date 3/30/20 3/30/21 3/30/22 3/30/23 3/28/24 - - -
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B-
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
14
Last Close Price
6.98 CNY
Average target price
9.201 CNY
Spread / Average Target
+31.82%
Consensus
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