Financials Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Equities

MPC

US56585A1025

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:02 2024-04-26 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
198.4 ^USD	-0.56%		+1.02%	+33.72%

Apr. 25	Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $213 From $211	MT
Apr. 24	Suncor Energy Raises Doubt Over Commencement of Trans Mountain Expansion Project Starting May	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	39,122	26,911	39,391	54,547	56,332	71,487	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	66,433	58,080	54,091	69,477	73,391	92,846	92,817	93,326
P/E ratio	15.1 x	-2.71 x	4.2 x	4.14 x	6.28 x	10.6 x	11.6 x	13 x
Yield	3.52%	5.61%	3.63%	2.14%	2.08%	1.69%	1.81%	1.9%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.31 x	0.39 x	0.33 x	0.3 x	0.37 x	0.51 x	0.52 x	0.54 x
EV / Revenue	0.53 x	0.84 x	0.45 x	0.39 x	0.49 x	0.66 x	0.68 x	0.7 x
EV / EBITDA	7.09 x	23.4 x	6.49 x	2.86 x	3.87 x	6.3 x	6.94 x	7.97 x
EV / FCF	20.1 x	-158 x	18.7 x	4.98 x	6 x	12 x	13.9 x	15.2 x
FCF Yield	4.98%	-0.63%	5.35%	20.1%	16.7%	8.35%	7.21%	6.58%
Price to Book	1.16 x	1.21 x	1.41 x	1.91 x	2.24 x	3 x	3.15 x	3.12 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	649,322	650,651	615,588	468,661	379,697	360,336	-	-
Reference price ²	60.25	41.36	63.99	116.4	148.4	198.4	198.4	198.4
Announcement Date	1/29/20	2/2/21	2/2/22	1/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	124,880	69,032	120,930	179,952	150,307	141,172	136,917	133,259
EBITDA ¹	9,374	2,487	8,341	24,335	18,985	14,731	13,375	11,717
EBIT ¹	5,576	-2,281	4,381	21,469	14,514	10,646	9,086	7,818
Operating Margin	4.47%	-3.3%	3.62%	11.93%	9.66%	7.54%	6.64%	5.87%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,329	-13,612	2,817	20,469	13,989	9,880	8,787	7,687
Net income ¹	2,637	-9,919	9,738	14,516	9,681	6,329	5,251	4,379
Net margin	2.11%	-14.37%	8.05%	8.07%	6.44%	4.48%	3.84%	3.29%
EPS ²	4.000	-15.28	15.24	28.12	23.63	18.75	17.12	15.30
Free Cash Flow ¹	3,308	-368	2,896	13,941	12,227	7,757	6,694	6,140
FCF margin	2.65%	-0.53%	2.39%	7.75%	8.13%	5.49%	4.89%	4.61%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	35.29%	-	34.72%	57.29%	64.4%	52.66%	50.04%	52.4%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	125.45%	-	29.74%	96.04%	126.3%	122.55%	127.48%	140.23%
Dividend per Share ²	2.120	2.320	2.320	2.490	3.080	3.360	3.595	3.772
Announcement Date	1/29/20	2/2/21	2/2/22	1/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	32,613	35,608	38,384	54,238	47,237	40,093	35,077	36,824	41,583	36,823	32,510	36,295	36,024	34,624	31,970
EBITDA ¹	2,416	2,795	2,639	9,060	6,834	5,802	5,218	4,531	5,708	3,528	2,881	4,569	4,340	3,331	3,060
EBIT ¹	1,365	1,778	1,716	8,328	6,686	4,739	4,061	3,305	4,753	2,395	1,764	3,398	3,144	2,036	1,835
Operating Margin	4.19%	4.99%	4.47%	15.35%	14.15%	11.82%	11.58%	8.98%	11.43%	6.5%	5.43%	9.36%	8.73%	5.88%	5.74%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,012	1,348	1,454	8,016	6,446	4,553	3,907	3,163	4,635	2,284	1,558	3,332	3,016	1,745	1,493
Net income ¹	694	774	845	5,873	4,500	3,321	2,724	2,226	3,280	1,451	916.1	2,307	2,036	1,036	880.5
Net margin	2.13%	2.17%	2.2%	10.83%	9.53%	8.28%	7.77%	6.04%	7.89%	3.94%	2.82%	6.36%	5.65%	2.99%	2.75%
EPS ²	1.090	1.270	1.490	10.95	9.060	7.090	6.090	5.320	8.280	3.840	2.594	6.710	6.316	3.301	2.875
Dividend per Share ²	0.5800	0.5800	0.5800	0.5800	0.5800	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	0.8300	0.8275	0.8275	0.8402	0.8605	0.8758
Announcement Date	11/2/21	2/2/22	5/3/22	8/2/22	11/1/22	1/31/23	5/2/23	8/1/23	10/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	27,311	31,169	14,700	14,930	17,059	21,359	21,330	21,839
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.913 x	12.53 x	1.762 x	0.6135 x	0.8986 x	1.45 x	1.595 x	1.864 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	3,308	-368	2,896	13,941	12,227	7,757	6,694	6,140
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	7.66%	-7.98%	6.46%	50.1%	37.1%	24.7%	24%	22.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.75%	-2.43%	1.83%	15.4%	11%	6.46%	5.46%	5.8%
Assets ¹	95,748	408,394	531,260	94,227	87,945	97,957	96,134	75,492
Book Value Per Share ²	51.90	34.10	45.30	61.00	66.30	66.20	63.00	63.60
Cash Flow per Share ²	14.00	0.5300	11.90	35.00	35.10	34.00	32.80	30.60
Capex ¹	6,133	3,031	1,992	2,420	1,890	2,244	2,302	2,232
Capex / Sales	4.91%	4.39%	1.65%	1.34%	1.26%	1.59%	1.68%	1.68%
Announcement Date	1/29/20	2/2/21	2/2/22	1/31/23	1/30/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

198.4 USD

Average target price

213.2 USD

Spread / Average Target

+7.48%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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