Financials Siam Makro

Equities

CPAXT

TH0429010Z01

Discount Stores

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
31.75 ^THB	-1.55%		+4.10%	+17.59%

Mar. 29	Cp Axtra Public Company Limited Approves Dividend for the Year 2023, Payable on 29 April 2024	CI
Feb. 14	CP Axtra Public Company Limited Proposes Dividend for the Year 2023, Payable on 29 April 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	148,800	189,600	444,374	423,213	285,669	335,925	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	152,444	187,636	515,233	542,014	285,669	409,475	404,333	397,956
P/E ratio	23.8 x	28.8 x	17.6 x	54.8 x	32.9 x	31.3 x	26.9 x	23.7 x
Yield	3.1%	2.53%	1.71%	1.28%	-	2.13%	2.49%	2.85%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.71 x	0.87 x	1.67 x	0.9 x	0.58 x	0.66 x	0.62 x	0.59 x
EV / Revenue	0.72 x	0.86 x	1.93 x	1.16 x	0.58 x	0.8 x	0.75 x	0.7 x
EV / EBITDA	14.1 x	16.2 x	32.5 x	15.8 x	8.32 x	11.5 x	10.6 x	9.78 x
EV / FCF	19.8 x	16.3 x	35.8 x	57.4 x	-	31.6 x	27.4 x	25.2 x
FCF Yield	5.05%	6.14%	2.79%	1.74%	-	3.16%	3.65%	3.97%
Price to Book	7.35 x	8.53 x	0.84 x	1.46 x	-	1.13 x	1.11 x	1.09 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	4,800,000	4,800,000	10,580,324	10,580,324	10,580,324	10,580,324	-	-
Reference price ²	31.00	39.50	42.00	40.00	27.00	31.75	31.75	31.75
Announcement Date	2/18/20	2/19/21	2/18/22	2/20/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	210,627	218,760	266,435	469,131	489,949	511,039	538,016	567,354
EBITDA ¹	10,809	11,587	15,873	34,252	34,319	35,671	38,301	40,680
EBIT ¹	8,204	8,956	10,494	16,701	16,707	18,666	20,672	22,777
Operating Margin	3.9%	4.09%	3.94%	3.56%	3.41%	3.65%	3.84%	4.01%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	7,895	8,337	15,425	10,411	11,134	13,537	15,745	17,913
Net income ¹	6,245	6,563	13,687	7,697	8,640	10,663	12,363	14,103
Net margin	2.96%	3%	5.14%	1.64%	1.76%	2.09%	2.3%	2.49%
EPS ²	1.300	1.370	2.380	0.7300	0.8200	1.015	1.182	1.342
Free Cash Flow ¹	7,693	11,522	14,397	9,447	-	12,945	14,748	15,787
FCF margin	3.65%	5.27%	5.4%	2.01%	-	2.53%	2.74%	2.78%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	71.17%	99.43%	90.7%	27.58%	-	36.29%	38.51%	38.81%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	123.2%	175.57%	105.19%	122.74%	-	121.4%	119.3%	111.94%
Dividend per Share ²	0.9600	1.000	0.7200	0.5100	-	0.6769	0.7901	0.9038
Announcement Date	2/18/20	2/19/21	2/18/22	2/20/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	111,053	54,971	100,411	108,159	118,463	229,680	115,560	123,687	-	120,222	121,612	241,834	119,502	128,613	126,148	-	-	-	-
EBITDA ¹	-	3,630	-	8,413	7,897	-	8,181	9,761	-	8,845	7,802	-	7,776	9,896	8,481	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	4,072	2,173	4,249	4,087	3,517	7,604	3,798	5,299	-	4,500	3,398	7,898	3,332	5,477	3,782	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	3.67%	3.95%	4.23%	3.78%	2.97%	3.31%	3.29%	4.28%	-	3.74%	2.79%	3.27%	2.79%	4.26%	3%	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	2,036	9,590	2,817	2,122	-	2,202	3,270	-	2,798	2,029	4,827	2,114	4,193	3,062	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	3,021	1,572	9,094	2,050	1,573	3,623	1,602	2,471	-	2,166	1,516	3,682	1,677	1,699	2,582	2,810	-	-	-
Net margin	2.72%	2.86%	9.06%	1.9%	1.33%	1.58%	1.39%	2%	-	1.8%	1.25%	1.52%	1.4%	1.32%	2.05%	-	-	-	-
EPS ²	0.6300	0.3300	1.420	0.1900	0.1500	0.3400	0.1500	0.2400	-	0.2000	0.1400	0.3500	0.1600	0.3100	0.2366	0.2351	0.2671	0.3300	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	0.1800	-	-	-	0.3300	-	0.1800	-	-	-	-	0.5725	-	-	-
Announcement Date	8/10/21	11/9/21	2/18/22	5/10/22	8/8/22	8/8/22	11/10/22	2/20/23	2/20/23	5/17/23	8/7/23	8/7/23	11/8/23	2/14/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	3,644	-	70,859	118,801	-	73,550	68,407	62,030
Net Cash position ¹	-	1,964	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.3371 x	-	4.464 x	3.468 x	-	2.062 x	1.786 x	1.525 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	7,693	11,522	14,397	9,447	-	12,945	14,749	15,787
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	32.1%	30.9%	5.09%	2.66%	-	3.75%	4.26%	4.76%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10%	9.5%	2.17%	1.38%	-	2.46%	2.77%	3.13%
Assets ¹	62,384	69,081	631,685	559,084	-	433,211	446,843	451,042
Book Value Per Share ²	4.220	4.630	50.00	27.40	-	28.20	28.60	29.10
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.140	2.780	2.910	2.080	-	1.630	2.670	2.960
Capex ¹	3,130	2,288	3,459	17,164	-	20,853	20,813	20,965
Capex / Sales	1.49%	1.05%	1.3%	3.66%	-	4.08%	3.87%	3.7%
Announcement Date	2/18/20	2/19/21	2/18/22	2/20/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Siam Makro

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

31.75 THB

Average target price

34.63 THB

Spread / Average Target

+9.08%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Discount Stores

	1st Jan change	Capi.
SIAM MAKRO	+17.59%	9.07B
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION	+10.47%	323B
TARGET CORPORATION	+15.67%	76.06B
WAL-MART DE MÉXICO, S.A.B. DE C.V.	-7.14%	67.53B
DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION	+4.50%	31.21B
DOLLARAMA INC.	+21.08%	23.54B
PAN PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION	+10.91%	14.15B
BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC.	+14.99%	10.19B
B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL S.A.	-5.78%	6.59B
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC.	-1.88%	4.57B

Other Discount Stores