Financials Waste Connections, Inc. Toronto S.E.

Equities

WCN

CA94106B1013

Environmental Services & Equipment

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-04-26 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
223.6 ^CAD	-0.93%		-1.46%	+12.98%

Apr. 26	UBS Cuts Waste Connections' Price Target to $179 From $181, Maintains Neutral Rating	MT
Apr. 26	RBC Trims Waste Connections Target to US$195, Reiterates Outperform, After Q1	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	23,941	26,958	35,502	34,086	38,458	42,181	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	27,969	31,075	40,418	40,920	45,146	49,363	48,647	48,439
P/E ratio	42.4 x	132 x	57.7 x	40.9 x	50.6 x	38.8 x	33.6 x	28.9 x
Yield	0.73%	0.74%	0.62%	0.71%	0.7%	0.71%	0.74%	0.78%
Capitalization / Revenue	4.44 x	4.95 x	5.77 x	4.73 x	4.79 x	4.79 x	4.46 x	4.14 x
EV / Revenue	5.19 x	5.71 x	6.57 x	5.67 x	5.63 x	5.61 x	5.14 x	4.76 x
EV / EBITDA	16.7 x	18.7 x	21.1 x	18.4 x	17.9 x	17.1 x	15.5 x	14.1 x
EV / FCF	30.5 x	36.9 x	42.4 x	36.9 x	36.9 x	41.2 x	31.6 x	26.4 x
FCF Yield	3.28%	2.71%	2.36%	2.71%	2.71%	2.43%	3.17%	3.78%
Price to Book	3.45 x	3.94 x	5.07 x	4.8 x	5.01 x	5.09 x	4.77 x	4.63 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	263,698	262,825	260,527	257,136	257,641	258,021	-	-
Reference price ²	90.79	102.6	136.3	132.6	149.3	163.5	163.5	163.5
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/17/21	2/16/22	2/15/23	2/13/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	5,389	5,446	6,151	7,212	8,022	8,804	9,458	10,186
EBITDA ¹	1,674	1,662	1,919	2,221	2,523	2,882	3,144	3,436
EBIT ¹	837.8	412.4	1,040	1,242	1,236	1,738	1,941	2,205
Operating Margin	15.55%	7.57%	16.9%	17.22%	15.41%	19.74%	20.52%	21.64%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	705.9	253.9	770.7	1,049	983.5	1,431	1,659	1,953
Net income ¹	566.8	204.7	618	835.7	762.8	1,087	1,255	1,410
Net margin	10.52%	3.76%	10.05%	11.59%	9.51%	12.35%	13.27%	13.84%
EPS ²	2.140	0.7800	2.360	3.240	2.950	4.214	4.862	5.654
Free Cash Flow ¹	916.8	841.9	953.9	1,110	1,224	1,199	1,541	1,832
FCF margin	17.01%	15.46%	15.51%	15.39%	15.26%	13.62%	16.29%	17.99%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	54.78%	50.66%	49.7%	49.98%	48.52%	41.61%	49%	53.33%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	161.73%	411.33%	154.34%	132.81%	160.48%	110.29%	122.75%	129.98%
Dividend per Share ²	0.6650	0.7600	0.8450	0.9450	1.050	1.160	1.212	1.275
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/17/21	2/16/22	2/15/23	2/13/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	1,624	1,646	1,816	1,880	1,869	1,901	2,021	2,065	2,036	2,073	2,221	2,277	2,240	2,230	2,381
EBITDA ¹	495.4	502.1	566.8	588.1	563.6	566.9	628.9	671.2	656	650.7	720.8	769.8	752	712.3	793.3
EBIT ¹	249.3	273.9	329.6	326.8	312	314.7	344.1	353	224.5	366.8	434.9	479.6	460.2	404	484.4
Operating Margin	15.35%	16.64%	18.14%	17.38%	16.69%	16.56%	17.03%	17.1%	11.03%	17.7%	19.58%	21.06%	20.55%	18.12%	20.35%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	212.1	229.2	282.5	285.9	251.4	252.2	277.7	292.2	161.4	288.5	353.4	399.9	384.3	371	419
Net income ¹	166.3	180.3	224.1	236.9	194.4	197.8	209.2	229	126.8	230.1	269.4	306.5	294	246.1	308.7
Net margin	10.24%	10.95%	12.34%	12.6%	10.4%	10.41%	10.35%	11.09%	6.23%	11.1%	12.13%	13.46%	13.12%	11.04%	12.97%
EPS ²	0.6400	0.6900	0.8700	0.9200	0.7500	0.7700	0.8100	0.8900	0.4900	0.8900	1.036	1.183	1.144	0.9657	1.218
Dividend per Share ²	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	0.2550	0.2550	0.2550	0.2550	0.2850	-	0.2880	0.2880	0.2860	0.3025	0.3025
Announcement Date	2/16/22	5/3/22	8/2/22	11/2/22	2/15/23	4/26/23	8/2/23	10/25/23	2/13/24	4/24/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	4,028	4,117	4,916	6,834	6,688	7,182	6,466	6,258
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.407 x	2.477 x	2.561 x	3.077 x	2.651 x	2.492 x	2.056 x	1.821 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	917	842	954	1,110	1,224	1,199	1,541	1,833
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	10.7%	10.1%	12.2%	11.9%	14.6%	15.6%	16.4%	18.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.46%	5.02%	5.9%	5.25%	6.17%	6.5%	7%	7.4%
Assets ¹	10,385	4,079	10,473	15,917	12,364	16,730	17,930	19,052
Book Value Per Share ²	26.30	26.10	26.90	27.60	29.80	32.10	34.30	35.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	5.820	5.340	6.490	7.840	8.240	9.060	10.30	-
Capex ¹	666	597	744	913	934	1,146	1,076	1,187
Capex / Sales	12.36%	10.96%	12.1%	12.66%	11.64%	13.01%	11.38%	11.66%
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/17/21	2/16/22	2/15/23	2/13/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Waste Connections, Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

163.5 USD

Average target price

180.9 USD

Spread / Average Target

+10.68%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Waste Management, Disposal & Recycling Services

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC.	-4.13%	12.05B
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.	+5.38%	5.23B
STERICYCLE, INC.	-6.56%	4.3B
CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED	-1.12%	3.87B
ZHEFU HOLDING GROUP CO., LTD.	-1.76%	2.41B
GRANDBLUE ENVIRONMENT CO., LTD.	+6.17%	2.07B
CHINA TIANYING INC.	-7.29%	1.51B
SHANGHAI ENVIRONMENT GROUP CO., LTD	+2.34%	1.42B
CHINA CONCH VENTURE HOLDINGS LIMITED	-12.35%	1.3B

Waste Management, Disposal & Recycling Services